Modeling salinity drop in estuarine areas under extreme precipitation events within a context of climate change: Effect on bivalve mortality in Galician Rías Baixas

The mortality of infaunal bivalves (Venerupis corrugata, Cerastoderma edule, Ruditapes decussatus and philippinarum) due to a drop in salinity caused by extreme precipitation events estuarine areas has been analyzed within context climate change. Rías Baixas (NW Iberian Peninsula) were selected as representative area the environments where bivalve gathering is performed. Bivalve under was both for historical (1990–2019) future (2070–2099) periods. Precipitation data retrieved from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario converted into river discharges using HEC-HMS hydrological model. calculated introduced Delft3D hydrodynamic model simulations performed order calculate transport conditions Baixas. Salinity estimate species drops. In general, moderate severe may be worse than historically observed, being more intense covering larger areas. This mainly observed neap tides less dilution freshwater plumes when compared with spring tides. Although all potentially affected, impact will differ each ria, Arousa, highest occur, most affected. differences among rias, especially those similar discharge pattern Pontevedra Vigo, suggest that bathymetric features also play key role extent affected mortality.